Obama's Iowa Victory Speech
Democrats: Obama 37.58%, Edwards 29.75%, Clinton 29.47%.
In the context of such a tight race, that's a decisive victory for Obama. Although Clinton finished only a fraction of a percent behind Edwards, she nonetheless finished third. That will be tremendously damaging to her -- for so many years there's been an 'aura of inevitability' about the Clinton candidacy, an aura that her campaign cultivated. Now she's not only been beaten in Iowa, but been beaten into third place. Tomorrow, the New Hampshire papers will be full of post-mortems about Obama's success and Clinton's failure. His supporters will be galvanised; Clinton's disappointed. Waverers will almost certainly break in Obama's favour -- and before you know it, Obama's success will be self-perpetuating, as will Clinton's failure. In short, he will have the momentum.
I've said for nearly three months now that if either Clinton or Obama won Iowa, they'd go on to take the nomination, and I think that's how it's gonna turn out, particularly given the margin of Obama's victory. The turnout in Iowa was historic. Over 220,000 people caucused for the Democrats. That's over 75% more than caucused in Iowa in 2004. Obama drew a historic number of independents and young people. He also drew more votes than Clinton among both men and women, and the overall Democratic turnout exceeded the Republican turnout by 145%. In short, it was a staggering set of numbers. It's only one poll, and Iowa has a poor record as the predictor of the final outcome, but I'd be very surprised if Obama now doesn't take New Hamphire and sweep to the Democratic nomination.
Republicans: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13%, McCain 13%.
Now watch the Republican establishment, media, and even a large section of the Religious Right line up to take Huckabee down. He's gonna cop a hammering. Whether the Republican movers and shakers line up behind Romney or McCain will depend on what happens in New Hampshire six days from now. The winner there, which will be either Romney or McCain, will inherit the anti-Huckabee mantle and will, I expect, go on to take the Republican nomination.
The only Republican who seems a legitimate threat in the general election is McCain. It remains to be seen whether he can scramble his way to the nomination, though. We'll know in less than a week.
It was creditable result given that he had a smaller organisation and less money. But if he can't beat Obama in Iowa, it's hard to see him beating him anywhere else. Iowa was really a must-win for Edwards.
But the consensus seems to be that Edwards' economic populism has pulled the entire Democratic field to the left, which, in itself, is a positive achievement. Who knows, if Clinton's support implodes in New Hampshire following her third in Iowa, Edwards may be the beneficiary. But -- and this may prove to be an absurdly early call -- I think it's academic.
Obama's gonna win.
Obama is a fantastic orator. I really, really hope he can make it. Eleven months is a long time.
Let's hope that some inbred redneck with a "goddamned right to bear arms" doesn't end his run to the Whitehouse ...
I don't know much about the American political system, or anything in general ... but I was thinking - in these cases, what stops republican supporters from rallying together and doing their best to vote in the least popular democrat in each state when they hold one of these ... you know, in hopes that they somehow win overall and then get crushed in the actual presidential election?
OMGZ JUSTIN TIMBERLAKEZ SIGN MY BALLOT FORM!!
Obama was the only Democrat who would beat the leading five Republican candidates, one-on-one. Does that sentence make sense? I mean, if he were nominated and any of the five Repubs were.
He would beat Huckabee (who is a full-blooded, hairy-palmed moon howler - see his AIDS policy for starters) by thirty points. Repub stalwarts are terrified that Huckabee has any chance of nomination. It would be a historic defeat.
Having said that, isn't it convenient that progressive parties are hammering conservatives around the world, just in time to inherit (probably) a nasty, nasty recession. Despression? End Times? Road Warriors? Some sensible people are saying scary things.
If it all goes to shit, I'll bring the guzzoline, you bring the arseless chaps and I'll meet you at Thunderdome.
...is that in most primaries you have to be a registered Democrat. Some primaries are 'open', which means that independents can vote, but as far as I know none of them allow registered Republicans to vote.
He would beat Huckabee (who is a full-blooded, hairy-palmed moon howler - see his AIDS policy for starters) by thirty points. Repub stalwarts are terrified that Huckabee has any chance of nomination. It would be a historic defeat.
Having said that, isn't it convenient that progressive parties are hammering conservatives around the world, just in time to inherit (probably) a nasty, nasty recession. Despression? End Times? Road Warriors? Some sensible people are saying scary things.
If it all goes to shit, I'll bring the guzzoline, you bring the arseless chaps and I'll meet you at Thunderdome.
Most of the polls I've seen, Marms, that poll the three Democrat frontrunners head-to-head against the Republican frontrunners have John Edwards doing the best. Edwards' general election viability is enormous, the trick for him has always been getting there, ie winning the Dem nomination. (I'm pretty confident that Obama and even Clinton would trounce all the Repubs too -- with the arguable, and slightly worrying, exception of McCain.)
McCain is in a similar situation for the Republicans. In polls he's been consistently the most competitive Republican head-to-head against the Dems, but can he actually beat the other Repubs to get his chance?
As for your last point, I couldn't agree more. The Democrats, just as Clinton did in the 90s, will get into office and set about implementing 'fiscal responsibility' and generally cleaning up after, and paying for, Republican profligacy. Then when they've racked up surpluses, and righted the ship, the Republicans will gain office again, where they'll spend like drunken sailors and send their countries down the crapper.
Interesting how that works.
...is that in most primaries you have to be a registered Democrat. Some primaries are 'open', which means that independents can vote, but as far as I know none of them allow registered Republicans to vote.
You have to register yourself to a party? God damn, no wonder they talk about political parties like you would football teams.
I just read today that the South Carolina Primary is open to Republicans.
It looks like Hilary has won New Hampshire.
Sorry to get OT and take away the spot light from Hillary but does anyone have Machinehead's version of Master of Puppets by any chance?
Now back to the primaries.
I own a machinehead album. Don't think it has what you are after.
To get further OT: did anyone else read the story on the Afghanistan War at vanityfair.com?
First piece of decent war correspondence I have read in a while. No green zones there, by the sounds of it.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/01/afghanistan200801
I aint read the article but I found the song it is off the "The Blackening Album". The song is Battery not Master of Puppets.
I will read the article, thanks for the link Bazron.
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