Iowa Caucuses: Time for Some Crystal-Balling

In the US today, the Iowa Caucuses take place. After, in some cases, years of campaigning, Republican and Democratic candidates face their first vote. Though Iowa is a small, largely white, largely rural American state, with a weird, undemocratic voting system, it wields a disproportionately important say in the electoral politics of the US. That's because a win in Iowa will result in the winner getting a tidal wave of money and media -- and most importantly a bump of several percent in the next poll, the New Hampshire Primary, held six days later. And the US primary season is such that momentum begets momentum, money begets money, and media begets media.

That's why Iowa's so important. It's the first domino. The trick is in getting it to fall your way.

(The closing Iowa ads for Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are embedded below.)

On the Democratic side, New Hampshire is a tight race between Obama and Clinton, with Edwards a fairly distant third place. So if Obama or Clinton can win Iowa, that would probably give either enough juice to also triumph in New Hampshire. And if either of them can win both Iowa and New Hampshire, then they'd be hot favourites to walk away with the Democratic nomination. (If Edwards wins Iowa, which is possible, then it's a little unclear how that plays out for Clinton and Obama in New Hampshire.)

My tip is that Obama wins Iowa, and that this does get him over the top in New Hampshire. From there, I can't see him losing the nomination.

On the other side, I think Huckabee will beat Romney in a tight contest in Iowa. Despite everything I've just said about the importance of Iowa momentum in the subsequent New Hampshire Primary, I expect Romney to then win New Hampshire narrowly over McCain. With all the big money and the Republican establishment swinging in behind him to ensure that Huckabee doesn't walk away with the nomination, Romney will be the Republican nominee.

The scariest scenario for the Democrats would be if McCain won New Hampshire, because McCain would, no doubt, be the most formidable opponent in a general election. The bad news is that McCain is currently surging and looks a chance of repeating his 2000 win in New Hampshire (over Dubya). If he can pull that off, then he probably sinks Romney and becomes frontrunner himself. This may mean that anything short of a Romney win in Iowa won't be enough to get him over the line against McCain in New Hampshire.

The best description of the Republican field is that there is no best-case scenario. Unless you have a taste for warmongers, corporatists, extremist libertarians, or religious zealots the only sensible thing would be to hang garlic around your neck and hammer wooden stakes through the hearts of each one of them.

Ever since Feingold withdrew from the race, and it became clear that Gore wasn't getting in, I've thought that John Edwards was the pick of the Democrats. I've gradually become more and more convinced of that. Unfortunately, an Edwards victory looks unlikely. Still, at this point, I'd settle for any president with a (D) next to their name.

Anyway, if you're at all interested in American politics, and in who'll be the next US president, keep an eye on the news today. Chances are we'll have a pretty good idea who it'll be by some time this afternoon.